\u00a9 Jonathan Ernst \/ Reuters
\nBy Patrick Smith<\/p>\n
February 8, 2016<\/p>\n
MOST POPULAR
\nOur Most Popular
\nObama\u2019s Slap at Putin Provokes Angry Response
\nHow Kate Upton\u2019s Cleavage Could Destroy North Korea
\nHow Putin Awoke NATO\u2019s Sleeping Giant
\nPutin\u2019s Shiny New Tank Breaks Down
\nby Taboola
\nNorth Korean rocket puts object into space
\nReuters
\nA bride gets caught up in collapsed crane chaos
\nITN<\/p>\n
NYC Issues Travel Alert Amid Winter Weather
\nWPIX – New York<\/p>\n
Cruise ship hit by strong storm
\nWESH – Orlando, FL<\/p>\n
Changing Dynamics Ahead of New Hampshire Primary
\nAP<\/p>\n
Bus blown up on London bridge for Jackie Chan film
\nReuters<\/p>\n
North Korean rocket puts object into space
\nReuters<\/p>\n
A bride gets caught up in collapsed crane chaos
\nITN
\nMore videos:<\/p>\n
Changing Dynamics Ahead of New Hampshire Primary<\/p>\n
Bus blown up on London bridge for Jackie Chan film<\/p>\n
North Korean rocket puts object into space<\/p>\n
A bride gets caught up in collapsed crane chaos<\/p>\n
NYC Issues Travel Alert Amid Winter Weather<\/p>\n
Cruise ship hit by strong storm<\/p>\n
Changing Dynamics Ahead of New Hampshire Primary<\/p>\n
Bus blown up on London bridge for Jackie Chan film<\/p>\n
North Korean rocket puts object into space<\/p>\n
A bride gets caught up in collapsed crane chaos<\/p>\n
NYC Issues Travel Alert Amid Winter Weather<\/p>\n
Cruise ship hit by strong storm<\/p>\n
February 5, 2016
\nPicture of the Day
\nMelissa McCarthy’s Shocking Weight Loss Secret Is Revealed Unthinkable Tragedy Hits Demi Moore Cher Fans In Mourning Melania Trump Returns Home and Donald Is Shocked by Her New Look
\nSo much for the Syrian peace process. With the opening of talks in Geneva last Monday, their collapse two days later, and little hope their resumption February 25th will bear much more fruit, the four-year war in Syria takes a new turn.<\/p>\n
New reality No 1: The global community is not equipped\u2014not yet, anyway\u2014with the institutions and mechanisms needed to address 21st century conflicts. Astonishing as it is to say, we don\u2019t know what to do as a nation of 23 million turns into a killing field. We need the kind of large minds our political systems no longer produce.<\/p>\n
Related: Has Putin Turned the Tide in Syria?<\/p>\n
New reality No. 2: The Obama administration has painted itself into a tight little corner on this one and left itself few paths, if any, out of it. Of all the mistakes Obama and his policy people have made on the foreign side, this one will go down as one of the worst.<\/p>\n
Washington needed the talks to yield some modest benefit almost as much as suffering Syrians. Geneva was the proving ground for its contention\u2014or pretense\u2014that there are \u201cSyrian moderates\u201d worthy of backing in their fight against ISIS, or the Bashar al-Assad government in Damascus, or both.<\/p>\n
There are plenty of democratically minded Syrian citizens, of course, but those carrying guns, including al-Nusra, the al-Qaeda affiliate, don\u2019t fit the definition. As one non-Islamist activist told The New York Times\u2019 Anne Barnard while walking along Lake Geneva after the talks collapsed, \u201cWe can\u2019t deny that Nusra is among us. It would be like saying this lake is made of milk.\u201d<\/p>\n
A power vacuum was evident even before the Geneva conference convened, and new facts on the ground have filled it fast.<\/p>\n
First, the Syrian Arab Army, with Russian air support, is now winning the war. As of last week the S.A.A. was reported to be within four or five kilometers of Aleppo, Syria\u2019s largest city. There\u2019s no more pretending on this point.<\/p>\n
Related: Clinton and Sanders Lock Horns Over U.S. Syria Policy<\/p>\n
Second, the Saudis just proposed sending troops\u2014probably special operations units\u2014into the war. And on Sunday, the United Arab Emirates asserted that it\u2019s ready to follow suit.<\/p>\n
This idea is rampant with complications. So is the increasing military involvement of the Turks, who are Washington\u2019s other regional ally in the coalition against\u2026 against who knows whom? It\u2019s either ISIS, as declared, or Damascus\u2014as is cynically evident on the ground.<\/p>\n
All in, it starts to look like truth time for the Obama administration. Its intentions in Syria\u2014defeat the Islamic State or oust Assad\u2014have been a blur for nearly two years, and this trick\u2019s now part of the problem, not the solution.<\/p>\n
The vexing dilemma for Obama and Secretary of State Kerry, which they created, is what happens when they clarify the strategic goals. There seems little avoiding this in the post-Geneva context, but many contradictions are likely to be exposed.<\/p>\n
Related: U.S.-Led Coalition Aims to Recapture ISIS ‘Caliphate’ In Iraq, Syria<\/p>\n
First, it\u2019s fine to say the S.A.A. and the Russians are to blame for the failure in Geneva, as Ban Ki-moon the U.N.\u2019s secretary-general, asserted over the weekend. The second half of the point is that the Saudi-backed opposition left town because it\u2019s losing the war\u2014the war against Assad, of course, not ISIS.<\/p>\n
As the Syrians and Russians make plain, neither distinguishes one Islamist militia from another. Why are some armed Sunni radicals waging a sectarian war against a Shiite regime different from others? And where are the moderate democrats carrying TOW anti-tank missiles?<\/p>\n
The \u201cfreedom fighter\u201d narrative is collapsing as we speak. Now what?<\/p>\n
Second, the nature of the coalition\u2019s regional leaders can\u2019t any longer be swept under the rug. Saudi Arabia\u2019s participation in the bombing campaign against ISIS was never more than a gesture; Riyadh and the Emirates are suddenly motivated because their war is at bottom sectarian and their guys are losing it.<\/p>\n
What\u2019s the Obama administration going to do in response to these two surprise offers to commit ground troops? It\u2019ll be interesting to see. As to the Turks, they\u2019re fully out of the closet: The Erdo\u011fan government\u2019s objectives are Sunni nationalist: a coup in Damascus and the destruction of the Kurdish autonomy movement.<\/p>\n
Related: Syria Says Any Foreign Aggressors Will Go Home “In Coffins”<\/p>\n
It\u2019s hard to see, finally, how Washington can continue to escape from the logic of a tactical \u201cunited front\u201d with the Russians, but to enter into one is to abandon the strategic-rivalry aspect of the Syrian crisis.<\/p>\n
On the diplomatic plane, Kerry has used his comfortable relationship with Sergei Lavrov, Russia\u2019s foreign minister, to identify common ground. They appear to be eye to eye now in recognizing that the world\u2019s enemy is ISIS and ousting Assad would simply produce another Libya.<\/p>\n
But the administration\u2019s divided on the Syrian question. He does one thing and the people who hand out hardware do another.<\/p>\n
Post-Geneva, it\u2019s time to clean up the act. If talks reconvene later this month\u2014an \u201cif\u201d at this point\u2014the menu should be prix fixe: You\u2019re either unambiguously dedicated to destroying the Islamic State\u2014which will require much of the opposition to realign\u2014or you\u2019re disinvited to the party and the bouncers will see you to the door.<\/p>\n