{"id":6000,"date":"2015-01-03T21:59:08","date_gmt":"2015-01-04T04:59:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/myfutureamerica.org\/?p=6000"},"modified":"2015-01-03T21:59:53","modified_gmt":"2015-01-04T04:59:53","slug":"6000","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/myfutureamerica.org\/?p=6000","title":{"rendered":"2015 Will Be All About Iran, China and Russia’s Economy"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u00a9 Fotolia\/ Puchikumo \/ Klara S<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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COLUMNISTS<\/a><\/p>\n
Pepe Escobar<\/a><\/div>\n
<\/i>20909<\/span><\/i>82<\/span><\/i>4<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Upcoming 2015 year will be all about further moves towards the integration of Eurasia as the US is progressively squeezed out of Eurasia, Pepe Escobar believes.<\/strong><\/p>\n

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BEIJING, December 31 (Sputnik)\u00a0\u2014 Fasten your seatbelts; 2015 will be a whirlwind pitting China, Russia and Iran against\u00a0what I have described as\u00a0the Empire of\u00a0Chaos<\/a>.<\/p>\n

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\u00a9 SPUTNIK\/ ALEXEI FURMAN<\/div>\n
World’s Biggest Political Events That Defined 2014<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

So yes \u2013 it will be all about\u00a0further moves towards\u00a0the integration of\u00a0Eurasia as\u00a0the US is progressively squeezed out\u00a0of Eurasia. We will see a complex geostrategic interplay progressively undermining the hegemony of\u00a0the US dollar as\u00a0a reserve currency and, most of\u00a0all, the petrodollar.For all the immense challenges the Chinese face, all over\u00a0Beijing it’s easy to\u00a0detect unmistakable signs of\u00a0a self-assured, self-confident, fully emerged commercial superpower. President Xi Jinping and the current leadership will keep investing heavily in\u00a0the urbanization drive and the fight against\u00a0corruption, including at\u00a0the highest levels of\u00a0the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Internationally, the Chinese will accelerate their overwhelming push for\u00a0new ‘Silk Roads’ \u2013 both overland and maritime \u2013 which will underpin the long-term Chinese master strategy of\u00a0unifying Eurasia with\u00a0trade and commerce.<\/p>\n

Global oil prices are bound to\u00a0remain low. All bets are off\u00a0on whether a nuclear deal will be reached by\u00a0this summer between\u00a0Iran and the P5+1. If sanctions (actually economic war) against\u00a0Iran remain and continue to\u00a0seriously hurt its economy, Tehran\u2019s reaction will be firm, and will include even more integration with\u00a0Asia, not the West.<\/p>\n

No matter how it was engineered, the fact that stands is that the current financial\/strategic oil price collapse is a direct attack against (who else?) Iran and Russia.<\/p>\n

Washington is well-aware that a comprehensive deal with\u00a0Iran cannot be reached without\u00a0Russia\u2019s help. That would be the Obama administration\u2019s sole \u2013 and I repeat \u2013 sole foreign policy success. A return to\u00a0the \u201cBomb Iran\u201d hysteria would only suit the proverbial usual (neo-con) suspects. Still, by\u00a0no accident, both Iran and Russia are now subject to\u00a0Western sanctions. No matter how it was engineered, the fact that stands is that the current financial\/strategic oil price collapse is a direct attack against (who else?) Iran and Russia.<\/p>\n

That derivative war<\/strong><\/p>\n

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\u00a9 REUTERS\/ BRENDAN MCDERMID<\/div>\n
Economic Highlights of 2014: Year of Falling Currencies<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Now let\u2019s take a look at\u00a0Russian fundamentals. Russia\u2019s government debt totals only 13.4% of\u00a0its GDP. Its budget deficit in\u00a0relation to\u00a0GDP is only 0.5%.\u00a0 If we assume a US GDP of $16.8 trillion (the figure for\u00a02013), the US budget deficit totals 4% of\u00a0GDP, versus 0.5% for\u00a0Russia. The Fed is essentially a private corporation owned by\u00a0regional US private banks, although it passes itself off\u00a0as a state institution. US publicly held debt is equal to\u00a0a whopping 74% of\u00a0GDP in\u00a0fiscal year 2014. Russia\u2019s is only 13.4%.The declaration of\u00a0economic war by\u00a0the US and EU on\u00a0Russia \u2013 via\u00a0the run on\u00a0the ruble and the oil derivative attack \u2013 was essentially a derivatives racket. Derivatives \u2013 in\u00a0theory \u2013 may be multiplied to\u00a0infinity. Derivative operators attacked both the ruble and oil prices in\u00a0order to\u00a0destroy the Russian economy. The problem is, the Russian economy is more soundly financed than\u00a0America’s.<\/p>\n

Considering that this swift move was conceived as\u00a0a checkmate, Moscow\u2019s defensive strategy was not that bad. On the key energy front, the problem remains the West\u2019s \u2013 not Russia\u2019s. If the EU does not buy what Gazprom has to\u00a0offer, it will collapse.<\/p>\n

Moscow\u2019s key mistake was to\u00a0allow Russia’s domestic industry to\u00a0be financed by\u00a0external, dollar-denominated debt. Talk about\u00a0a monster debt trap\u00a0 which can be easily manipulated by\u00a0the West. The first step for\u00a0Moscow should be to\u00a0closely supervise its banks. Russian companies should borrow domestically and move to\u00a0sell their assets abroad. Moscow should also consider implementing a system of\u00a0currency controls so the basic interest rate can be brought down\u00a0quickly.<\/p>\n

And don\u2019t forget that Russia can always deploy a moratorium on\u00a0debt and interest, affecting over $600 billion. That would shake the entire world’s banking system to\u00a0the core. Talk about\u00a0an undisguised \u201cmessage\u201d forcing the US\/EU economic warfare to\u00a0dissolve.<\/p>\n

And don\u2019t forget that Russia can always deploy a moratorium on\u00a0debt and interest, affecting over $600 billion.<\/p>\n

Russia does not need to\u00a0import any raw materials. Russia can easily reverse-engineer virtually any imported technology if it needs to. Most of\u00a0all, Russia can generate\u00a0\u2014 from\u00a0the sale of\u00a0raw materials \u2013 enough credit in\u00a0US dollars or euros. Russia’s sale of\u00a0its energy wealth\u00a0\u2014 or sophisticated military gear\u00a0\u2014 may decline. However, they will bring in\u00a0the same amount of\u00a0rubles\u00a0\u2014 as\u00a0the ruble has also declined.<\/p>\n

Replacing imports with\u00a0domestic Russian manufacturing makes total sense. There will be an inevitable \u201cadjustment\u201d phase \u2013 but\u00a0that won\u2019t take long. German car manufacturers, for\u00a0instance, can no longer sell their cars in\u00a0Russia due to\u00a0the ruble’s decline. This means they will have to\u00a0relocate their factories to\u00a0Russia. If they don\u2019t, Asia \u2013 from\u00a0South Korea to\u00a0China\u00a0\u2014 will blow them out\u00a0of the market.<\/p>\n

Bear and dragon on\u00a0the prowl<\/strong><\/p>\n

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\u00a9 FLICKR\/ EUROPEAN SOUTHERN OBSERVATORY<\/div>\n
2014 in Pictures<\/a><\/p>\n
42<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The EU’s declaration of\u00a0economic war against\u00a0Russia makes no sense whatsoever. Russia controls, directly or indirectly, most of\u00a0the oil and natural gas between\u00a0Russia and China: roughly 25% of\u00a0the world’s supply. The Middle East is bound to\u00a0remain a mess. Africa is unstable. The EU is doing everything it can to\u00a0cut itself off\u00a0from its most stable supply of\u00a0hydrocarbons, prompting Moscow to\u00a0redirect energy to\u00a0China and the rest of\u00a0Asia. What a gift for\u00a0Beijing \u2013 as\u00a0it minimizes the alarm about\u00a0the US Navy playing with “containment” across\u00a0the high seas.Still, an unspoken axiom in\u00a0Beijing is that the Chinese remain extremely worried about\u00a0an Empire of\u00a0Chaos losing more and more control, and dictating the stormy terms of\u00a0the relationship between\u00a0the EU and Russia. The bottom line is that Beijing would never allow itself to\u00a0be in\u00a0a position where the US could interfere with\u00a0China’s energy imports \u2013 as\u00a0was the case with\u00a0Japan in\u00a0July 1941 when the US declared war by\u00a0imposing an oil embargo, cutting off\u00a092% of\u00a0Japanese oil imports.<\/p>\n

Everyone knows a key plank of\u00a0China\u2019s spectacular surge in\u00a0industrial power was the requirement for\u00a0manufacturers to\u00a0produce in\u00a0China. If Russia did the same, its economy would be growing at\u00a0a rate of\u00a0over 5% per year in\u00a0no time. It could grow even more if bank credit was tied only to\u00a0productive investment.<\/p>\n

Now imagine Russia and China jointly investing in\u00a0a new gold, oil and natural resource-backed monetary union as\u00a0a crucial alternative to\u00a0the failed debt “democracy” model pushed by\u00a0the Masters of\u00a0the Universe on\u00a0Wall Street, the Western central bank cartel, and neoliberal politicians. They would be showing the Global South that financing prosperity and improved standards of\u00a0living by\u00a0saddling future generations with\u00a0debt was never meant to\u00a0work in\u00a0the first place.<\/p>\n

Until then, a storm will be threatening our very lives \u2013 today and tomorrow. The Masters of\u00a0the Universe\/Washington combo won\u2019t give up\u00a0their strategy to\u00a0make Russia a pariah state cut off\u00a0from trade, the transfer of\u00a0funds, banking and Western credit markets and thus prone to\u00a0regime change.<\/p>\n

Further on\u00a0down the road, if all goes according to\u00a0plan, their target will be (who else) China. And Beijing knows it. Meanwhile, expect a few bombshells to\u00a0shake the EU to\u00a0its foundations. Time may be running out \u2013 but\u00a0for the EU, not Russia. Still, the overall trend won\u2019t be altered; the Empire of\u00a0Chaos is slowly but\u00a0surely being squeezed out\u00a0of Eurasia.<\/p>\n

The views expressed in\u00a0this article are solely those of\u00a0the author and do not reflect the official position of\u00a0Sputnik.<\/em><\/p>\n

You can buy Pepe Escobar\u2019s latest book “Empire of\u00a0Chaos” here<\/a><\/p>\n

source<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00a9 Fotolia\/ Puchikumo \/ Klara S COLUMNISTS 17:06 31.12.2014(updated 17:22 31.12.2014) Pepe Escobar 20909824 Upcoming 2015 year will be all about further moves towards the integration of Eurasia as the US is progressively squeezed out of Eurasia, Pepe Escobar believes. BEIJING, December 31 (Sputnik)\u00a0\u2014 Fasten your seatbelts; 2015 will be a whirlwind pitting China, Russia […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6001,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[98,104],"tags":[139,140],"class_list":["post-6000","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","category-featured","tag-economy-2","tag-russia-2"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/myfutureamerica.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/1016436750.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/s2SfUR-6000","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/myfutureamerica.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6000","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/myfutureamerica.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/myfutureamerica.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/myfutureamerica.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/myfutureamerica.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6000"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/myfutureamerica.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6000\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6003,"href":"https:\/\/myfutureamerica.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6000\/revisions\/6003"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/myfutureamerica.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/6001"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/myfutureamerica.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6000"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/myfutureamerica.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6000"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/myfutureamerica.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6000"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}