{"id":5678,"date":"2014-12-06T16:10:26","date_gmt":"2014-12-06T23:10:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/myfutureamerica.org\/?p=5678"},"modified":"2014-12-06T16:10:26","modified_gmt":"2014-12-06T23:10:26","slug":"the-world-according-to-the-russian-president","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/myfutureamerica.org\/?p=5678","title":{"rendered":"The World According to the Russian President"},"content":{"rendered":"
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He doesn’t want a new world order, he wants respect for Russia in this one<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Peter Lavelle<\/div>\n

opinion<\/span><\/span> <\/span> 13 hours ago | <\/span> <\/span> 1270<\/span><\/span> <\/span> 3<\/a><\/span> <\/span><\/p>\n

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Confident<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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This article originally appeared <\/a>at Sputnik<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

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There is wide recognition among Russia\u2019s political and financial elites the country will continue to be in conflict with the West for the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n

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Russia\u2019s President Vladimir Putin\u2019s incredible poll numbers tell him he has the support of\u00a0the public for\u00a0the policy agenda he chooses. This makes both Putin and Russia feel confident.<\/p>\n

For years Putin has made it abundantly clear in\u00a0his speeches Russia is not happy with\u00a0the global status quo. His address to\u00a0the Federation Council this week is evidence of\u00a0this.<\/p>\n

As far as\u00a0Putin is concerned, the entire international system is rigged to\u00a0Washington\u2019s advantage. The very existence of\u00a0the U.S. dollar ensures Washington and its closest allies will never allow a fair playing field.<\/p>\n

That said, Putin is not eager to\u00a0see the current global system collapse. He wants more political equality, but\u00a0he also knows Russia and other emerging powers face punishment for\u00a0challenging and breaking with\u00a0the Washington designed global consensus.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Thus, broadly speaking Russia sees itself preparing for\u00a0conflicts ahead, a war by\u00a0other means if you like. The military should always be prepared for\u00a0contingency plans, but\u00a0the conflicts Putin has in\u00a0mind focus on\u00a0finance, trade, and economic warfare.<\/p>\n

And, preparing for\u00a0war, the Kremlin is taking a long view Western sanctions on\u00a0the back of\u00a0the Ukraine crisis have been a renewed wake-up call. Sanctioning an individual or individuals and their wealth rarely changes a country\u2019s domestic or foreign policy choices.<\/p>\n

But sanctioning the energy sector\u2019s ability to\u00a0go to\u00a0international\u00a0 markets, for\u00a0example, exposed dangerous weaknesses. Since then Kremlin has been conducting \u201cstress tests\u201d across\u00a0numerous sectors searching for\u00a0other weaknesses.<\/p>\n

Putin is hoping for\u00a0the best, but\u00a0expecting real challenges. Going on\u00a0a war footing is never easy.<\/p>\n

Sanction are Pinching, but\u00a0What Really Hurts is Price of\u00a0Oil<\/strong><\/p>\n

To-date food import bans have been met with\u00a0very little negative blowback. Consumers are not worried about\u00a0food; they have something else on\u00a0their minds. The real concern is growing inflation and the painful drop in\u00a0the ruble\u2019s value on\u00a0international exchanges since\u00a0early 2014.<\/p>\n

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Sustained lower oil prices have crimped fiscal appetites and forced Russia to\u00a0consider its own form of\u00a0budget austerity. Many individuals have had to\u00a0consider personal austerity, as\u00a0well. Soon we will know how many Russians decided to\u00a0stay home during\u00a0the upcoming winter break. This in\u00a0itself will be an interesting economic and political indicator.<\/p>\n

The Russia-West Standoff: Both Determined, Russia Well Prepared<\/strong><\/p>\n

Since the advent of\u00a0the \u201csanction season\u201d both sides are sticking to\u00a0their proverbial guns. Aches and pains, yes, but\u00a0so far no broken bones or a trip to\u00a0the emergency room. Russia\u2019s balance sheet is very robust.<\/p>\n

The country can easily and comfortably cover all foreign debt obligations and expected a small budget deficit to\u00a0the end of\u00a02015 without\u00a0going to\u00a0international markets for\u00a0refinancing or new borrowings. This includes the condition of\u00a0Russia being in\u00a0recession for\u00a0most of\u00a0the year.<\/p>\n

Also, a weak ruble adds security to\u00a0the budget. And additionally, import substitution will continue apace, such as\u00a0of military spare parts once sourced from\u00a0Ukraine. All in, Russia is prepared while the West scrambles to\u00a0fight off\u00a0divisions among\u00a0themselves.<\/p>\n

What is next from\u00a0the West? US President Barack Obama and German Chancellor Angela Merkel keep saying they are committed to\u00a0maintaining a tough line against\u00a0Russia, but\u00a0they are vague about\u00a0what further sanctions could entail. Indeed, there is not a whole lot more the West can do against\u00a0Russia without\u00a0inflicting massive assaults on\u00a0their own economies.<\/p>\n

Threatening Russia like\u00a0Iran or North Korea is simply not tenable. Europe would freeze in\u00a0winter and oil prices would skyrocket. Such conditions would create the truly unthinkable \u2013 a hot war that would later be called WWIII.<\/p>\n

Russian World Order?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Since the Great Recession of\u00a02008 Russia has been acutely aware of\u00a0its vulnerabilities. Being too closely integrated into\u00a0western financial institutions was one of\u00a0them.<\/p>\n

The Ukraine crisis was just a reminder that Russia must develop safeguards against\u00a0weaknesses and dangers generated in\u00a0the West, particularly those found on\u00a0Wall Street. But it would be a mistake to\u00a0believe that Putin wants to\u00a0pull Russia out\u00a0of the current global economic system.<\/p>\n

Putin is hardly looking to\u00a0design a \u201cRussian world order.\u201d Russia merely wants fair access to\u00a0international markets; it wants its companies to\u00a0be truly international, and fair trade for\u00a0all. And if you have been listening for\u00a0the past\u00a014 years, Putin wants institutions like\u00a0the BRICS and the G20 to\u00a0do the heavy lifting when it comes to\u00a0global policy making.<\/p>\n

But make no mistake, Russia is resolved to\u00a0protect its sovereign rights in\u00a0ways European countries have learned to\u00a0deny themselves.<\/p>\n

The West\u2019s media claim that Putin\u2019s language is bellicose and threatening is a gross exaggeration. In fact, he simply wants it recognised that Russia should not be denied a respected position in\u00a0the world.<\/p>\n

In the meantime, Russia and Russians are doing much to\u00a0make this happen even if Washington continues down\u00a0the path of\u00a0confrontation.<\/p>\n

source<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

He doesn’t want a new world order, he wants respect for Russia in this one Peter Lavelle opinion 13 hours ago | 1270 3 Tweet inShare Confident This article originally appeared at Sputnik There is wide recognition among Russia\u2019s political and financial elites the country will continue to be in conflict with the West for […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5680,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[104,114],"tags":[116,140,1221,1075],"class_list":["post-5678","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured","category-world-2","tag-putin","tag-russia-2","tag-usa","tag-wold-view"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/myfutureamerica.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/12\/59_l1.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p2SfUR-1tA","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/myfutureamerica.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5678","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/myfutureamerica.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/myfutureamerica.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/myfutureamerica.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/myfutureamerica.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5678"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/myfutureamerica.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5678\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5681,"href":"https:\/\/myfutureamerica.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5678\/revisions\/5681"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/myfutureamerica.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/5680"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/myfutureamerica.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5678"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/myfutureamerica.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5678"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/myfutureamerica.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5678"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}