{"id":4472,"date":"2014-05-02T13:38:08","date_gmt":"2014-05-02T19:38:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/myfutureamerica.org\/?p=4472"},"modified":"2014-05-12T11:03:20","modified_gmt":"2014-05-12T17:03:20","slug":"not-putin-had-triggered-the-ukraine-crisis-but-the-desire-of-the-u-s-to-bring-ukraine-into-nato-stephen-cohen-english-german-russian","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/myfutureamerica.org\/?p=4472","title":{"rendered":"Stephen Cohen: Not Putin had triggered the Ukraine crisis, but the desire of the U.S. to bring Ukraine into NATO, English, German, Russian."},"content":{"rendered":"

taz: Mr. Cohen, U.S. President Barack Obama talks every day about the Ukraine and Russia.<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0And in Kiev to give CIA chief John Brennan, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Vice President Joe Biden, the jack in the hand.<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0How important is Ukraine for the U.S.?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Stephen Cohen:<\/strong>\u00a0Ukraine is so important for the political leadership of the United States that it risked a war with Russia.<\/span>\u00a0Why this is so, can be recognized only with great difficulty.<\/span>\u00a0For here there will be no public debate about this crisis.<\/span>\u00a0We are at a historic turning point.<\/span>\u00a0Last Sunday, the\u00a0New York Times<\/em>\u00a0reports that Obama has essentially declared a new Cold War against Russia and made \u200b\u200bthe old policy of containment own.<\/span><\/p>\n

What is the official explanation?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

It says that the poor Ukraine only wanted democracy and economic prosperity – by the European partnership offer to the then President Viktor Yanukovych of November.<\/span>\u00a0And that Russia had prevented that.<\/span>\u00a0Some think was behind that Vladimir Putin wants to have the old Soviet Union.<\/span>\u00a0Others, that he at home lose power and a war and nationalism need to save yourself a fate as \u00c4gpytens President Hosni Mubarak or Yanukovych.<\/span>\u00a0But all believe that America needs to stop Putin.<\/span>\u00a0Because he would otherwise go in the Baltic States and Poland.<\/span><\/p>\n

What is so different than in Germany?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

In Germany there is a debate and at least three former Chancellor who criticize the EU’s policy towards Russia and Ukraine.<\/span>\u00a0Since Schr\u00f6der and Schmidt.<\/span>\u00a0And the interesting thing is carbon.<\/span>\u00a0He knows the history of German unification.<\/span>\u00a0He knows what commitments it gave to Russia at the time.<\/span>\u00a0Among other things, that NATO is not expanded.<\/span>\u00a0He has also criticized the EU.<\/span>\u00a0And that Merkel.<\/span>\u00a0In America, no ex-president expresses criticism.<\/span>\u00a0Where is Bill Clinton?<\/span>\u00a0He has promised his friendship with Russia in the 90s.<\/span>\u00a0He is silent.<\/span>\u00a0Where is Jimmy Carter?<\/span><\/p>\n

How do you explain the silence of the American Elite?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Both parties – Democrats and Republicans – are deeply involved.<\/span>Since the 90s, Clinton, Bush and Obama have made a policy that surrounded Russia.<\/span><\/p>\n

You are viewing the Russia policy of the United States the last 20 years as a failure?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Ukraine crisis is a colossal failure of U.S. foreign policy.<\/span>\u00a0She has brought us to the brink of war.<\/span>\u00a0And all U.S. presidents since Clinton are accomplices.<\/span><\/p>\n

Do you see a connection with the U.S. reorientation to Asia?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Obama’s Japan policy seems to have failed.<\/span>\u00a0The Western reactions to the Crimea and Ukraine have brought China closer to Russia.<\/span>\u00a0I would say if anyone reordering of to Asia, it is Putin, not Obama.<\/span><\/p>\n

Plays Edward Snowden matter?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

If one day the story is written, as we have come close to war with Russia, we must go back much further.<\/span><\/p>\n

How far?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

It starts in the 90s, with the decision to NATO to move from Germany to the Russian border.<\/span>\u00a0NATO is now in the Baltics.<\/span>\u00a0In November, 2013, as the EU’s offer was rejected to Ukraine, we see two things: the Edward Snowden affair and the Olympic Games in Sochi.<\/span>\u00a0Both were central elements of the American coverage of the Ukraine crisis.<\/span>\u00a0But the games are over.<\/span>\u00a0And Snowden is just a footnote.<\/span>\u00a0He would not be in Russia, if we had not taken him the pass and set Latin American countries under pressure.<\/span>\u00a0And without Ukraine crisis Snowden would today probably in Germany.<\/span><\/p>\n

So what’s the plan behind Obama’s Russia policy?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Ukraine into NATO bring.<\/span>\u00a0That’s what all the time.<\/span>\u00a0And Merkel, against a NATO membership of Ukraine in 2008 and Russia understands and can talk with Putin, at least – the poor Merkel has fallen into an impossible position.<\/span>\u00a0We should have passed the Ukrainian situation in November Merkel.<\/span>\u00a0She would have found a solution.<\/span>\u00a0The Americans are much too ideological.<\/span>\u00a0And Obama is clearly not good in foreign policy.<\/span><\/p>\n

A few hours before the flight of Yanukovych in Kiev were three European foreign ministers in Kiev and have spoken with him.<\/strong><\/span>One of them was the German.<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0Are not the three – with failed – including Steinmeier?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

The three had negotiated an agreement that would have allowed Yanukovych to December as president in office and included a government of reconciliation.<\/span>\u00a0Russia had not publicly agreed to give money.<\/span>\u00a0It looked like the best way.<\/span>\u00a0Without violence.<\/span>\u00a0The agreement was destroyed by the radicals on the road.<\/span><\/p>\n

What should have done the three European ministers?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

They could have said the three types, the Ukrainian leaders Tjagnybok, Klitschko and the komissarischen Prermierminister Yatsenyuk: If you want our support, you have to protect Yanukovych and stop the road.<\/span>\u00a0Instead, they are cut off.<\/span>\u00a0After they failed, they have a new, unelected, illegitimate Government cherishes that did not come on the basis of their agreement to power.<\/span>\u00a0This is an outrage.<\/span>\u00a0And they have passed the whole thing to the Polish Foreign Minister.<\/span>\u00a0The least that one can say about is that he, in terms of Russia is a radical.<\/span>\u00a0Now the Poles and the radicals on the streets, among which are also neo-fascists, the shots.<\/span>\u00a0And the story of progress toward a war.<\/span>\u00a0I do not know why Merkel has not intervened.<\/span>\u00a0It is under enormous pressure.<\/span>\u00a0I guess they have capitulated.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Chancellor meets on Friday to U.S. President in Washington.<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0It will also go to the Ukraine.<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0What advice would you give her?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

I hope that Merkel bluntly Obama says how dangerous the situation is.<\/span>\u00a0And that the U.S. and the EU are just as responsible as Russia.<\/span>\u00a0I have no doubt that she knows it.<\/span>\u00a0You should calm Obama.<\/span>\u00a0And explain to him that the things he and Kerry say not agree.<\/span><\/p>\n

What is wrong?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

First, Putin has not started this crisis.<\/span>\u00a0There was no Russian aggression.<\/span>\u00a0This crisis began when the European Union Yanukovych has made an either-or ultimatum in November.<\/span>\u00a0The Protocols of the Agreement, NATO is not explicitly mentioned, but security conditions have made Ukraine a kind of honorary member of NATO.<\/span>\u00a0Second, it is wrong that Putin is behind everything that happens in eastern Ukraine.<\/span>\u00a0The U.S. has more control over the government in Kiev as Putin over the rebels in the east.<\/span><\/p>\n

But Putin has set the Ukraine last fall under pressure to decide.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

That’s not true.<\/span>\u00a0Ahead of the November both Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov Brussels have asked several times: Why is the Ukraine before an either-or choice?<\/span>\u00a0And offered to negotiate with the EU and Ukraine, a three-party mini-Marshall Plan.<\/span>Putin knew that a simultaneous membership of Ukraine could be problematic for an EU-Economic Community and its Eurasian community.<\/span>\u00a0But he suggested to postpone the decision for a year or two.<\/span>\u00a0In the meantime, the EU economy and Russian economy should cooperate in Ukraine.<\/span><\/p>\n

Thank appeared that unrealistic.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

You can say that was an impossible way.<\/span>\u00a0Or was it a trick.<\/span>\u00a0But the rejection by Brussels and Washington has accelerated the crisis.<\/span>Ukraine is a deeply divided country.<\/span>\u00a0There may have been a Ukrainian state, when the crisis began.<\/span>\u00a0But there was always – history, God or fate – two or even three Ukrainian countries: the West, the East and Central Ukraine.<\/span>\u00a0Western Ukraine has always had a affinity to Europe, eastern Ukraine to Russia.<\/span>\u00a0It was a serious mistake to push this deeply divided country at a fateful decision between West and East.<\/span>\u00a0What we are experiencing now, is the precipitation of this error.<\/span><\/p>\n

President Obama is against military intervention – both in Ukraine and elsewhere.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

He wants to be the president who ended the American wars and bring the Americans home.<\/span>\u00a0He wants to fight only with drones.<\/span>\u00a0He does not want war.<\/span>\u00a0But he is pursuing a policy that leads to a war is possible.<\/span>\u00a0A leader who makes a policy that violates its own goals, is a bad leader.<\/span>\u00a0In this case, Obama had a partner in Putin, at least one potential partner.<\/span>\u00a0Putin, Obama has kept in Syria before a war by he has brought Assad to destroy the chemical weapons.<\/span><\/p>\n

They call the new Cold War more dangerous than the old one.<\/strong><\/span>Why?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Its center lies not in Germany – far away from Russia – but further east, right on the Russian border.<\/span>\u00a0Everything is possible.<\/span>\u00a0During the first Cold War, there were stabilizing rules of conduct.<\/span>\u00a0Sometimes a rule has been broken.<\/span>\u00a0For example, when Khrushchev in 1962 brought the missiles to Cuba.<\/span>\u00a0But in general, the rules were followed.<\/span>In the present Cold War, there are no rules.<\/span>\u00a0There are louder runaway actors.<\/span><\/p>\n

Who do you mean?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Types with masks, who walk around in Western Ukraine, where the situation is as precarious as in eastern Ukraine.<\/span>\u00a0We have an illegitimate government in Kiev.<\/span>\u00a0We have people in Russia who are annoyed and not under Putin’s control.<\/span>\u00a0And we have the absence of a debate in Washington.<\/span>\u00a0The situation is out of control.<\/span>\u00a0That is why we are approaching a war.<\/span>\u00a0It could happen anytime.<\/span>\u00a0The danger of war is not that someone is planning a war, but that reckless policy makers – especially in the West – have created a situation in which a war is possible.<\/span><\/p>\n

Most people do not even know in the U.S., where Ukraine is located.<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0Why should they be prepared to go to war because of the Ukraine?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Here, no one knew where Vietnam is.<\/span>\u00a0Or the Iraq or Afghanistan.<\/span>Wars are made by elites, not the people.<\/span>\u00a0And the elites often adopt a policy that is so foolish that they slide into a war that they have not anticipated.<\/span><\/p>\n

Are the sanctions against Russia make a difference?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

You are hurt.<\/span>\u00a0But they will not change his policies.<\/span>\u00a0If the economic situation in Russia is so painful that there is a Maidan there, you should pray.<\/span>\u00a0Because Russia is the largest country in the world, territorial and has more weapons of mass destruction than any other country.<\/span>\u00a0If Russia is on the way as fragmented as the Ukraine, no one is safe.<\/span><\/p>\n

Traditional means Cold War that face two ideologically contrary powers.<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0Currently, we do not.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Yet.<\/span>\u00a0Our ideology is freedom, democracy, the rise of the individual, economic prosperity, free markets and economic integration.<\/span>\u00a0Russia rejects these values \u200b\u200bis not objectionable.<\/span>\u00a0But says that they are doing across the world calamity.<\/span>\u00a0And that traditional European values \u200b\u200bnot based on the individual but on the family and on social welfare states instead of austerity as well as on the sovereignty of nations.<\/span>Russia says it defends traditional values \u200b\u200band want to resist the American regime change.<\/span><\/p>\n

Cold War implies global confrontation.<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0But in the U.S. it is said that the international community is united against Putin.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Some of the most populated countries in the world are essentially behind Russia: China, Iran, Latin America, India.<\/span>\u00a0We can not isolate Russia.<\/span>\u00a0This Cold War is becoming increasingly international.<\/span>\u00a0And there is another misconception, when it is said that Russia is weaker than the Soviet Union.<\/span>\u00a0The conflict takes place on Russia’s borders.<\/span>Therefore, Russia’s determination is very much greater than that of the West.<\/span>\u00a0And we must not forget that this conflict could be very fast atomic.<\/span>\u00a0The Russian military doctrine includes the use of tactical nuclear weapons if the country is overwhelmed by conventional weapons from the West.<\/span>\u00a0I would not want to test in place of Obama.<\/span><\/p>\n

Consider what is happening inside the Ukraine as a “proxy war”?<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0As earlier in African and Asian countries?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

The Kiev government does not control once the West.<\/span>\u00a0Even if they enjoy support.<\/span>\u00a0To the east of the country, it has no support.<\/span>\u00a0Both in the East and in the West fighters are on the go.<\/span>\u00a0This includes the possibility of civil war.<\/span>\u00a0If this civil war breaks out, Russia is likely to intervene in the east and NATO in the west.<\/span>\u00a0We come from a civil war to an East-West war.<\/span>\u00a0This is more than a proxy war.<\/span><\/p>\n

What would be the best – or least bad – result of this crisis?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

A diplomatic way out of the crisis is still possible.<\/span>\u00a0There is still the possibility of negotiating the Russian proposals on 17 March.<\/span>\u00a0They include new elections, not only the President but also the Parliament.<\/span>And a new constitution, which creates a federal Ukrainian state.<\/span>\u00a0With the guarantees has called Putin, from Europe, Russia and the UN.<\/span>That would be the best result.<\/span><\/p>\n

And if that is impossible?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Then we must ask ourselves whether two Ukraines would be better than a Ukraine during the civil war.<\/span>\u00a0A division of Ukraine, comparable to Germany after the Second World War.<\/span>\u00a0But perhaps the Ukraine is too complicated for that.<\/span>\u00a0And it would definitely lead to civil war.<\/span>\u00a0That would probably lead to a war between the West and Russia.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

German<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201eWir schlittern in einen Krieg\u201c<\/h1>\n

Nicht Putin habe die Ukrainekrise ausgel\u00f6st, sondern der Wunsch der USA, die Ukraine in die Nato zu holen, meint der Russlandforscher Stephen Cohen.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Ukrainischer Soldat in der N\u00e4he von Slawjansk. Cohen sieht in der Ukrainekrise \u201eein kolossales Scheitern der US-Au\u00dfenpolitik\u201c.\u00a0Bild: ap<\/span><\/p>\n

taz: Herr Cohen, US-Pr\u00e4sident Barack Obama spricht jeden Tag \u00fcber die Ukraine und Russland. Und in Kiew geben sich CIA-Chef John Brennan, US-Au\u00dfenminister John Kerry und Vizepr\u00e4sident Joe Biden die Klinke in die Hand. Wie wichtig ist die Ukraine f\u00fcr die USA?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Stephen Cohen:\u00a0<\/strong>Die Ukraine ist so wichtig f\u00fcr die politische F\u00fchrung der USA, dass sie einen Krieg mit Russland riskiert. Warum das so ist, l\u00e4sst sich nur sehr schwer erkennen. Denn hier findet keine \u00f6ffentliche Debatte \u00fcber diese Krise statt. Dabei befinden wir uns an einem historischen Wendepunkt. Letzten Sonntag hat die\u00a0New York Times<\/em>berichtet, dass Obama im Wesentlichen einen neuen Kalten Krieg gegen Russland deklariert und sich die alte Politik der Eind\u00e4mmung zu eigen gemacht hat.<\/p>\n

Was ist die offizielle Erkl\u00e4rung?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sie lautet, dass die arme Ukraine nur Demokratie und \u00f6konomischen Wohlstand wollte \u2013 durch das europ\u00e4ische Partnerschaftsangebot an den damaligen Pr\u00e4sidenten Wiktor Janukowitsch vom November. Und dass Russland das verhindert habe. Manche meinen, dahinter stecke, dass Wladimir Putin die alte Sowjetunion zur\u00fcckhaben will. Andere, dass er zu Hause Macht verliere und einen Krieg und Nationalismus brauche, um sich ein Schicksal wie \u00c4gpytens Pr\u00e4sident Husni Mubarak oder Janukowitsch zu ersparen. Aber alle meinen, dass Amerika Putin stoppen muss. Weil er anderenfalls auch in die baltischen Staaten und nach Polen gehen w\u00fcrde.<\/p>\n

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